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Structural shifts associated with the low-carbon transition are reshaping production and consumption and spurring capital investment. This includes technological innovation, consumer and investor preferences for lower-carbon products, and shifts in government policies.1
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Find out what lead strategist for iShares Thematics in EMEA, Omar Moufti, and Global Head of Sustainable Indexing, Manuela Sperandeo, have to say on transition thematics.
<Omar Moufti>
Thematic investing is about looking towards the long-term and orienting portfolios towards the big structural changes that will define our era. With that in mind, our BLK Investment Institute has named the transition to a low-carbon economy as one of five mega forces that we see as structural shifts bringing significant changes in profitability across economies and sectors:
In 2022 alone, $1.1 trillion of capital was committed to low-carbon energy supply investment solutions, crucial to bringing us closer to a low-carbon transition.2
To help assess how this transition is most likely to play out, we’ve developed the BlackRock Investment Institute Transition Scenario also known as BIITs. Manuela, thanks so much for joining me today. You’ve worked closely with the team on the development of BIITS. Can you tell us a bit more about what it is and how it can help clients?
<Manuela Sperandeo>
Sure and thanks Omar it’s great to be here. BIITS is a research-based, analytical forecast on how the low-carbon transition is likely to unfold. It’s built on a suite of proprietary models, with inputs that include climate policy and technological innovation, to ultimately give granular forecasts on how we believe the transition will progress across sectors and regions, and this can be used as a compass to help investors navigate the transition’s risks and opportunities.
We see the transition happening at a different pace in different regions and sectors of the economy. Let me give you an example, when looking at specific sectors, power and buildings are transitioning at a faster pace due to an increase in the use of electricity over fossil fuel, what we normally speak to as electrification, in the transport sector we think heavy-duty commercial vehicles will likely be slower in the transition, vs passenger vehicles, due again to technological viability and costs.
However, one thing is clear: the transition to a low-carbon economy represents a historical investment opportunity.
<Omar Moufti>
So how are we integrating the insights from the BIITs framework into tangible investment solutions for clients?
<Manuela Sperandeo>
So when we think about transition investing, we define it as, ‘investing with a focus on preparing for, being aligned to, benefitting from but also contributing to the transition to a low-carbon economy’. So the first two probably what most investors think as first as part of their core allocation. For example, those companies that are improving and/or leading on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, or those investing in portfolios or assets on a decarbonisation pathway that is aligned to an industry accepted low carbon scenario. But there are also a number of exposures that stand to benefit from or contribute to the transition, and I think that’s where thematic ETFs could offer clients additional investment choices and opportunities.
2 Assets includes securities and issuers.
3 Such key inputs are also capable of being used for non-transition purposes.
<Omar Moufti>
Yes, I totally agree.
The insights from BIITS have really helped us to ensure that we have solutions to capture potential opportunities across the whole transition landscape.
In EMEA, for thematic ETFs we see four areas for the transition: that’s clean energy production, transportation, essential metals, and finally energy storage.
So starting with the energy segment, the highest source of historical emissions5 it’s about shifting power production from hydrocarbons to renewables.
Moving downstream from here, this shift to renewables requires investment in energy storage, given the nature of the availability of solar and wind energy.
Further downstream, we see a massive change occurring in mobility & transportation, with a focus on electric vehicles.
But as we adopt these technologies, there is going to be a tremendous impact all the way upstream, on the quantity and type of materials a transitioning economy requires. So in the same way the 20th century was built on hydrocarbons, the pathway to a low carbon economy—one characterised by deep electrification—will be metals and materials intensive, from copper, to lithium, to cobalt and other essential metals.
So if we look at lithium which is an important metal in the production of electric vehicles and energy storage. It’s expected that demand will increase 10-fold between 2022 and 2050 in a net zero scenario.6 By the end of this decade, it’s expected that 95% of lithium demand will stem from batteries, up from just 30% in 2015.7
Pop up disclaimer: There’s no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.
Another example is copper. Electric vehicles require nearly 2.5x the amount of copper used in internal combustion engine vehicles across electric motors, batteries, and charging infrastructure.8
Now these are big numbers. However, the supply for a range of these essential metals is expected to face challenges over the coming years and this can make for an attractive investment backdrop.
<Manuela Sperandeo>
Thanks Omar, some compelling statistics, the opportunities are broad, not just in terms of sectors but also geographies. We think that combining the insights of the BIITS research with the implementation options of our transition investing platform can truly provide a compass to help investors navigate the risks and opportunities associated with a low carbon transition. I look forward to seeing how our Thematics ETF range continues to develop to meet clients’ needs in this space.
1 BlackRock Investment Institute (BII), Investment Perspectives: Tracking the low-carbon transition, Page 9, as at 31/07/2023.
2 Bloomberg NEF Global Low-Carbon Energy Technology Investment Surges Past $1 Trillion for the First Time, 26 January 2023.
3 Assets includes securities and issuers.
4 Such key inputs are also capable of being used for non-transition purposes.
5 IEA CO2 Emissions 2022 published March 2023.
6 IEA Critical Minerals Demand dataset March 2022.
7 McKinsey & Company. Lithium Mining: How New Production Technologies Could Fuel the Global EV Revolution, as at 04/12/2022.
8 S&P Global, ‘The Future of Copper - Will the looming supply gap short-circuit the energy transition?’, as at 31/07/2022.
MKTGH1123E/S-320069
The BlackRock Investment Institute recently launched its Transition Scenario (BIITS) – a framework for tracking the transition to a lower-carbon economy, to help assess the investment opportunities and risks it may bring.1
The BIITS estimates that lower-carbon energy sources will make up more than half of total global energy demand by 2050, up from an estimated one-fifth now.1 According to the BIITS, much of the increase will occur due to electrification in the buildings and transport sectors, coupled with decarbonisation of the power sectors.
Our thematics range can provide clients with solutions to help them achieve their long-term investment objectives while incorporating transition investing considerations.
1 Source: BlackRock Investment Institute (BII), Investment Perspectives: Tracking the low-carbon transition as of July 2023.
Essential metals have a foundational role in emerging technologies. Minerals, such as copper, lithium, nickel or rare earth possess unique characteristics, necessary for constructing low carbon technologies and renewable energy systems. Coupled with supply chain challenges, this also presents growth opportunities for miners and producers of essential metals.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute (BII), Investment Perspectives: Tracking the low-carbon transition, Page 6, as of July 2023.
Required investment to meet minerals demand in the Net Zero Scenario, 2022-2030.2
Electric cars require six times as many minerals, with an average of 207 kg per vehicle, compared to just 34 kg per vehicle in conventional cars.3
Export restrictions on critical raw materials have increased more than five-fold in the last decade with 10% of global value of exports of critical raw materials now facing at least one export restriction measure.4
2 Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2023, as at 30/01/2023.
3 Source: IEA, The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, as at 31/05/2021.
4 Source: OECD, as at 31/04/2023.
The iShares Essential Metals Producers UCITS ETF [METL] invests in companies engaged in the mining or manufacturing of metals which may be required for the global energy sector’s transition from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption to renewable energy sources.
Risk: There can be no guarantee that the investment strategy can be successful and the value of investments may go down as well as up.
Risk: Diversification and asset allocation may not fully protect you from market risk.
The transition to a low-carbon economy could benefit copper miners as constraints are posed by supply growth. Given the metal’s key role in electrification across renewable energy, electric vehicles and infrastructure buildout demand is expected to grow.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute (BII), Investment Perspectives: Tracking the low-carbon transition, Page 6, as of July 2023.
Global demand for copper is expected to double over the next decade, supported by the deployment of key technologies: the electrification of transport, renewable technology, and infrastructure.5
The amount of copper used in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles across electric motors, batteries, and charging infrastructure.5
Copper supply increase required by 2030 should policy continue to converge on a net-zero emissions path by 2050.6
5 Source: S&P Global, ‘The Future of Copper - Will the looming supply gap short-circuit the energy transition?’ as at 31/07/2022.
6 Source: JP Morgan, as at 30/03/2023.
The iShares Copper Miners UCITS ETF [COPM] invests in developed and emerging market companies, primarily engaged in the copper ore mining industry.
Risk: There can be no guarantee that the investment strategy can be successful and the value of investments may go down as well as up.
Risk: Diversification and asset allocation may not fully protect you from market risk.
Lithium is an important metal in the production of electric vehicles and energy storage. As the transition to a low-carbon economy unfolds, demand is expected to increase exponentially, and companies involved may benefit.1
Investors looking to gain exposure to lithium may want to consider ETFs that offer exposure to the entire value chain. This includes exploration, mining, processing, and compound manufacturing.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute (BII), Investment Perspectives: Tracking the low-carbon transition, Page 6, as of July 2023.
By the end of the decade, 95% of lithium demand will stem from batteries, up from just 30% in 2015.7
Lithium demand is expected to grow between 2021 and 2030, driven by three key factors1: the growth of EVs, rising demand for renewable energy, and lithium’s use in consumer electronics.7
Automotive lithium-ion battery demand increased in 2022, primarily due to growth in passenger EV sales.8
7 Source: McKinsey & Company. Lithium Mining: How New Production Technologies Could Fuel the Global EV Revolution, as at 04/12/2022.
8 Source: Global EV Outlook 2023 – Analysis – IEA.
The iShares Lithium and Battery Producers ETF [LITM] provides exposure to companies with high exposure to the lithium industry through lithium miners, compounds manufacturers and lithium battery producers.
Risk: There can be no guarantee that the investment strategy can be successful and the value of investments may go down as well as up.
Risk: Diversification and asset allocation may not fully protect you from market risk.
The shift towards electric vehicles (EV) is underway and so are improvements in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). The end goal being fully-autonomous vehicles. These trends are underpinned by a confluence of different factors. These include the need to reduce carbon emissions, falling cost of batteries, and advancements in information processing capabilities.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute (BII), Investment Perspectives: Tracking the low-carbon transition, Page 5, as of July 2023.
More electric vehicles (EVs) were sold in 2022 compared to 2019 reaching a record 10.5 million. EVs could represent 44% of global car sales in 2030, up from 14% in 2022.9
Is the observed cost reduction for lithium-ion batteries between 2013 and 2022 in real terms. While parity with internal combustion engine vehicles varies by region, parity could occur as early as 2025 for EVs in Europe (at $124/kWh).9
Between US$300 billion and US$400 billion revenue could be generated from autonomous driving by 2035.10
9 Source: BloombergNEF, Electric Vehicle, as at 17/10/2023.
10 Source: McKinsey, as at 31/01/2023.
By screening for supplier connectivity, the iShares Electric Vehicles and Driving Technology UCITS ETF [ECAR] invests in companies across the value chain. This ranges from automakers and their suppliers, semiconductor manufacturers to battery makers.
Risk: There can be no guarantee that the investment strategy can be successful and the value of investments may go down as well as up.
Risk: Diversification and asset allocation may not fully protect you from market risk.
The adoption of renewable energy systems can play a pivotal role in reducing carbon emissions. It can also aid tackling energy security, offering lower-carbon emitting solutions and a path forward for energy needs.
The production costs of renewable energy now compete favourably with traditional power sources, hastening adoption of these energy alternatives.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute (BII), Investment Perspectives: Tracking the low-carbon transition, Page 6, as of July 2023.
Allocated by governments for clean energy investment support since 2020.11
Of all the newly commissioned renewable capacity in 2022 had lower costs than fossil fuel-fired electricity.12
Of new power capacity expansion in 2022 came from renewable sources reaching a record high, from 57% in 2018.12
11 Source: IEA, Government Spending Tracker, as at 30/06/2023.
12 Source: IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022, as at 30/08/2023.
The iShares Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF [INRG] tracks the S&P Global Clean Energy index. This tracks companies involved in clean energy, from renewables-sourced electric utilities, to wind and solar equipment makers.
Risk: There can be no guarantee that the investment strategy can be successful and the value of investments may go down as well as up.
Risk: Diversification and asset allocation may not fully protect you from market risk.