We've launched the BlackRock Macro GPS, a continuously updated indicator using big data signals that take the pulse of the growth outlook, and a Global Macro Outlook that highlights economic trends that have become – or should become – market talking points.
Our GPS currently shows modest upside for future economic growth in key economies. Our macro outlook assesses the potential for more fiscal spending, and gauges its impact on global growth and asset prices.
BlackRock Macro GPS
Economic growth is tough to get a handle on. Official GDP data come out only quarterly – and are often revised after the fact. Market participants continuously scramble to reassess the macro outlook based on incoming data. Enter our BlackRock Macro GPS. This tool incorporates big data signals that provide a timely handle on the growth outlook for eight major economies. The aim is to show where 12-month forward consensus GDP forecasts may stand in three months’ time.
BlackRock Macro GPS, 2015-2016
What does it do?
- Draws on a wider set of information sources than gauges such as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). This includes proprietary big data insights from BlackRock’s Scientific Active Equity team.
- Combines other leading economic indicators in an open architecture, allowing us to potentially improve the model over time.
- Allows us to identify which information sources are driving any reassessment of the outlook based on daily new information flow updates.
The GPS was developed jointly by the BlackRock Investment Institute and BlackRock's Scientific Active Equity team.
Global Macro Outlook
In our inaugural Global Macro Outlook, we assess the potential for more fiscal spending in key economies, and gauge the impact on global growth and asset prices.
Key points from this issue
- Policymakers are guiding fiscal policy away from austerity. It is too soon to expect a big growth boost, but the change in tone matters.
- The political landscape is shifting in favor of infrastructure spending, with proposals featuring in the US presidential campaign.
- We see the extra growth impulse from fiscal expansion as larger than usual at this juncture thanks to complementary monetary easing.
Insights and Resources
This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.
Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
The opinions expressed in this paper may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this paper are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents.
This paper may contain "forward-looking" information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole discretion of the reader.
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.
© 2016 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, BUILD ON BLACKROCK, SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY and the stylized i logo are registered and unregistered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.