FOR FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS

A new way to track the economy

14/okt/2016 / By BlackRock

We've launched the BlackRock Macro GPS, a continuously updated indicator using big data signals that take the pulse of the growth outlook, and a Global Macro Outlook that highlights economic trends that have become – or should become – market talking points.

 


 

Our GPS currently shows modest upside for future economic growth in key economies. Our macro outlook assesses the potential for more fiscal spending, and gauges its impact on global growth and asset prices.

BlackRock Macro GPS

Economic growth is tough to get a handle on. Official GDP data come out only quarterly – and are often revised after the fact. Market participants continuously scramble to reassess the macro outlook based on incoming data. Enter our BlackRock Macro GPS. This tool incorporates big data signals that provide a timely handle on the growth outlook for eight major economies. The aim is to show where 12-month forward consensus GDP forecasts may stand in three months’ time.

Economic snapshot

BlackRock Macro GPS, 2015-2016

What does it do?

  • Draws on a wider set of information sources than gauges such as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). This includes proprietary big data insights from BlackRock’s Scientific Active Equity team.
  • Combines other leading economic indicators in an open architecture, allowing us to potentially improve the model over time.
  • Allows us to identify which information sources are driving any reassessment of the outlook based on daily new information flow updates.

The GPS was developed jointly by the BlackRock Investment Institute and BlackRock's Scientific Active Equity team.

Global Macro Outlook

In our inaugural Global Macro Outlook, we assess the potential for more fiscal spending in key economies, and gauge the impact on global growth and asset prices.

Key points from this issue

  • Policymakers are guiding fiscal policy away from austerity. It is too soon to expect a big growth boost, but the change in tone matters.
  • The political landscape is shifting in favor of infrastructure spending, with proposals featuring in the US presidential campaign.
  • We see the extra growth impulse from fiscal expansion as larger than usual at this juncture thanks to complementary monetary easing.

 

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Head of Economic and Market Research, BlackRock Investment Institute
Head of Economics, BlackRock Fixed Income Americas
Head of Economic and Market Research, BlackRock Investment Institute
Head of Economics, BlackRock Fixed Income Americas

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Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

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