De belangrijkste punten in het Nederlands:
Alain Kerneis over de belangrijkste overwegingen voor lange-termijnbeleggers:
- Waarom we onze vijfjaarsverwachting voor economische groei in ontwikkelde markten naar beneden hebben bijgesteld
- Welke beleggingscategorieën de komende vijf jaar naar verwachting het best zullen presteren
- Relative value style takes advantage of numerous market dislocations in both rising and falling markets
- En waarom pensioenfondsen hun bronnen van hefboomfinanciering moeten diversifiëren
Alain Kerneis, Head of Strategy and Market Views within Client Solutions, discusses key considerations for long-term investors.
In this issue we focus on the following three key areas:
1. The five-year asset view
We have modestly revised down our five-year real GDP growth forecasts for advanced economies due to lower US growth. In equities, valuations and low earnings growth may limit future returns. We have also lowered our five-year fixed income forecasts broadly, reflecting the fall in yields in the past quarter.
2. The strategic portfolio
We believe equities will outperform fixed income over five years, and private market assets may allow valuable incremental returns in a low return environment. Investors with liabilities should have material hedge ratios. Now is a good time to remove inflation risk. We construct our portfolio by combining stable, long-run views with dynamic tilts to reflect current market conditions.
3. Investors with liabilities
Taking leverage through government bonds is more expensive and has higher roll risk than before. Pension funds should diversify their sources of leverage. For certain investors, obtaining leveraged exposure to equity is cheaper than obtaining leveraged exposure to government bonds. Equity total return swaps can arguably reduce roll risk.
Insights and Resources
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Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
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