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In the last twenty years, developing economies have been lifted by the rising tide of globalisation and manufacturing shifting to Asia. The emergence of a sizeable, aspirational middle class, particularly in China, has made it an important destination for global companies. We continue to expect emerging markets to offer significant growth potential for domestic and multinational firms.
Learn more about the megatrends shaping our future of economies, business and society.
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Two decades of unprecedented growth has lifted China's per capita GDP from a meagre 8% of US per capita GDP in 2000 to roughly 30% this year.1 This rapid growth has been enabled by significant infrastructure investments, support for an export-focused manufacturing base and increased spending on innovation. In turn this has resulted in persistent growth in household incomes; the World Bank notes that China alone is set to add one billion people to the global middle class between 2005-2030. It is not surprising then that China has been a key source of growth for companies exposed to Chinese consumers (e.g. luxury brands, autos, smartphones).
China's significant economic progress has coincided with its foray abroad. Consider the approximate $1 trillion (all amounts given in USD) Belt and Road Initiative as China seeks to invigorate infrastructure and trade routes across south Asia and other parts of the emerging world. A new breed of Chinese companies are increasingly capturing market share at home and venturing overseas. This is a natural progression of an economy that has been steadily moving up the value curve in infrastructure, manufacturing and technology sectors (see chart below).
Source: 1IMF World Economic Outlook Update, Jan 2019.
Elsewhere, genuine reform can unlock potential in India, which benefits from an expanding labour pool (the working age population is set to grow by almost 14% by 2030E, compared to a -3% decline for China).2 As cost inflation in China pushes manufacturing jobs elsewhere, neighbouring southeast Asian economies are benefiting (e.g. Vietnam, Bangladesh). Another advantage for emerging markets is the ability to lead from advanced economies and adopt cheaper and better technologies to boost productivity (e.g. clean energy, communication). For instance, Mexico's mobile penetration is at 90% while fixed-line penetration has plateaued at 16%.3
Source: 2 United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2018 Revision. 3 International Telecommunication Union, Oct 2018.
Source: European Commission, data from 2013-2017. Dec 2018.
An increasing number of domestic emerging market companies are on the cusp of a new phase of value creation. Cost leadership is giving way to technological expertise. Regional players are turning into national dominators. Suppliers to global companies are building their own brands. We see opportunities in identifying local winners and innovators with exposure to growing themes.
For investors who are unable to access domestic emerging markets, there are opportunities to consider among global firms that can cater to local tastes and compete effectively with local competition. Primarily, the emerging middle class is poised to drive demand for global brands most consumer categories – from toothpaste and nappies to luxury bags and apparel.
Elsewhere, opportunities may arise for companies that solve structural constraints: these economies need commodities, infrastructure and access to new technologies. They need to satisfy rising demand for food, clean energy, cheaper healthcare, faster telecom networks etc. and global companies will likely be part of the solution.
Our range of thematic funds offer a way for investors to tap into megatrends, which we believe gives investors exposure to companies with structurally higher earnings growth, which in-turn could drive stronger investment returns over the longer term.
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Technological breakthrough
New technologies lie at the heart of resolving or accelerating the five megatrends. Breakthrough innovation is necessary to address large-scale challenges (e.g. ageing economies, climate change), while new solutions are also targeting relatively minor problems (e.g. payments, streaming). This backdrop has created a fertile ground for disruptive innovation and Thematic investing.
Demographics and social change
Changes in global demographics will bring significant challenges and opportunities for societies and businesses. The forces that underpin this megatrend include ageing populations in advanced economies and China, the outlook for future jobs, immigration pressure, skills imbalance and the radically different priorities of younger generations.
Rapid urbanisation
Cities have always been hubs for talent, capital and innovation. In the last decade, hundreds of large cities have been built in emerging economies, attracting significant infrastructure investments. Large cities such as San Francisco, London, Paris and New York have also been the ideal launch pads for entrepreneurs given their large, dense populations. Understanding the advantages and challenges of future cities can help us identify the next sources of growth.
Climate change and resource scarcity
An expanding population and the rising demand for food, energy and materials continue to strain the finite resources of the planet. The need for solutions that improve energy efficiency, lower food waste and provide alternatives to scarce resources has never been greater. Underlying these trends is the persistent increase in global emissions which has led to intensifying debates around climate change and how we can resolve it.
Emerging global wealth
In the last twenty years, developing economies have been lifted by the rising tide of globalisation and manufacturing shifting to Asia. The emergence of a sizeable, aspirational middle class, particularly in China, has made it an important destination for global companies. We continue to expect emerging markets to offer significant growth potential for domestic and multinational firms.
Use our simple tool to see how our five megatrends connect to investment themes and funds.
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