By Asset Class
ETF EDUCATION
Adviser Centre
Forms & documents
Economies are slowly restarting, but at different paces. We are tracking the evolution of the virus and mobility. The longer it takes for activity to restart, the more cracks might appear in the financial system.
Asymmetrical assessment
Impact of mobility and lockdown severity on services sector, June 2020
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, Oxford University and Google with data from Haver Analytics, June 2020. Note: This chart shows the impact that a 10 point move up or down in consumer mobility data and stringency measures have on the service sectors of the U.S., Japan, France, UK, Canada, Spain, Italy, Germany and Sweden. We use Google data on retail and recreation activity for the mobility score and Oxford data on lockdown stringency. “Tightening” means increased lockdown severity and reduced mobility. We use a panel regression to measure the effect of mobility on services activity, and how this differs between tightening and easing.
View our Midyear Outlook in charts
Bottom line: We find that measures of mobility are more closely tied to activity than the severity of lockdown measures. This suggests investors should focus on mobility rather than government rules.
Strategic implication: We are moderately pro risk, and express it in an overweight to credit.
Tactical implication: We have closed our underweights in cyclical assets, with a preference for Europe.